Ruan2017 - Transmission dynamics and control of rabies in China
Model Identifier
BIOMD0000000726
Short description
Format
SBML
(L2V4)
Related Publication
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Modeling the transmission dynamics and control of rabies in China.
- Ruan S
- Mathematical biosciences , 4/ 2017 , Volume 286 , pages: 65-93 , PubMed ID: 28188732
- Department of Mathematics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146, USA. Electronic address: ruan@math.miami.edu.
- Human rabies was first recorded in ancient China in about 556 BC and is still one of the major public-health problems in China. From 1950 to 2015, 130,494 human rabies cases were reported in Mainland China with an average of 1977 cases per year. It is estimated that 95% of these human rabies cases are due to dog bites. The purpose of this article is to provide a review about the models, results, and simulations that we have obtained recently on studying the transmission of rabies in China. We first construct a basic susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered (SEIR) type model for the spread of rabies virus among dogs and from dogs to humans and use the model to simulate the human rabies data in China from 1996 to 2010. Then we modify the basic model by including both domestic and stray dogs and apply the model to simulate the human rabies data from Guangdong Province, China. To study the seasonality of rabies, in Section 4 we further propose a SEIR model with periodic transmission rates and employ the model to simulate the monthly data of human rabies cases reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health from January 2004 to December 2010. To understand the spatial spread of rabies, in Section 5 we add diffusion to the dog population in the basic SEIR model to obtain a reaction-diffusion equation model and determine the minimum wave speed connecting the disease-free equilibrium to the endemic equilibrium. Finally, in order to investigate how the movement of dogs affects the geographically inter-provincial spread of rabies in Mainland China, in Section 6 we propose a multi-patch model to describe the transmission dynamics of rabies between dogs and humans and use the two-patch submodel to investigate the rabies virus clades lineages and to simulate the human rabies data from Guizhou and Guangxi, Hebei and Fujian, and Sichuan and Shaanxi, respectively. Some discussions are provided in Section 7.
Contributors
Submitter of the first revision: Sarubini Kananathan
Submitter of this revision: Sarubini Kananathan
Modellers: Sarubini Kananathan
Submitter of this revision: Sarubini Kananathan
Modellers: Sarubini Kananathan
Metadata information
is (2 statements)
isDescribedBy (1 statement)
hasTaxon (3 statements)
hasProperty (2 statements)
isDescribedBy (1 statement)
hasTaxon (3 statements)
hasProperty (2 statements)
Curation status
Curated
Modelling approach(es)
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Connected external resources
SBGN view in Newt Editor
| Name | Description | Size | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
Model files |
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| Model.xml | SBML L2V4 representation of Ruan2017 - Transmission dynamics and control of rabies in China | 64.46 KB | Preview | Download |
Additional files |
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| Modelling the transmission dynamics and control of rabies in china REACTIONS.cps | Copasi file for the model. Figure produced is similar to publication. | 90.32 KB | Preview | Download |
- Model originally submitted by : Sarubini Kananathan
- Submitted: Aug 28, 2018 4:38:27 PM
- Last Modified: Dec 6, 2018 10:35:02 AM
Revisions
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Version: 6
- Submitted on: Dec 6, 2018 10:35:02 AM
- Submitted by: Sarubini Kananathan
- With comment: Automatically added model identifier BIOMD0000000726
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Version: 4
- Submitted on: Aug 28, 2018 4:38:27 PM
- Submitted by: Sarubini Kananathan
- With comment: Edited model metadata online.
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Legends
: Variable used inside SBML models
: Variable used inside SBML models
Species
| Species | Initial Concentration/Amount |
|---|---|
| S h 0000514 ; Homo sapiens |
1.29E9 mol |
| E h exposure ; Homo sapiens |
250.0 mol |
| I h 0000511 ; Homo sapiens |
89.0 mol |
| R h Recovered or Resolved ; Homo sapiens |
200000.0 mol |
| E d exposure ; Canis lupus familiaris |
200000.0 mol |
| S d 0000514 ; Canis lupus familiaris |
3.5E7 mol |
Reactions
| Reactions | Rate | Parameters |
|---|---|---|
| S_h => | Human_Population*m_h*S_h | m_h = 0.003 |
| E_h => | Human_Population*m_h*E_h | m_h = 0.003 |
| E_h => R_h | Human_Population*k_h*E_h | k_h = 0.54 |
| I_h => | Human_Population*m_h*I_h | m_h = 0.003 |
| R_h => S_h | Human_Population*lambda_h*R_h | lambda_h = 1.0 |
| E_d => I_d | compartment*sigma*gamma*E_d | gamma = 0.4; sigma = 6.0 |
| S_h => E_h; I_d | beta_dh*S_h*I_d | beta_dh = 2.29E-12 |
| R_h => | Human_Population*m_h*R_h | m_h = 0.003 |
| S_d => E_d; I_d | compartment*beta*S_d*I_d | beta = 1.58E-7 |
Curator's comment:
(added: 06 Dec 2018, 10:33:32, updated: 06 Dec 2018, 10:33:32)
(added: 06 Dec 2018, 10:33:32, updated: 06 Dec 2018, 10:33:32)
Figure 2.2b of the reference publication has been reproduced. Initial conditions were taken from the publication. The parameter values of mu_h and m_h had to be changed to 1.34 and 0.003 respectively to reproduce a figure similar to the publication. The model was simulated using Copasi 4.24 and the figure was generated using Python 3.7.