Qu2017 - A mumps model with seasonal fluctuations in China

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Model Identifier
MODEL1808280011
Short description
Format
SBML (L2V4)
Related Publication
  • A mumps model with seasonality in China.
  • Qu Q, Fang C, Zhang L, Jia W, Weng J, Li Y
  • Infectious disease modelling , 2/ 2017 , Volume 2 , Issue 1 , pages: 1-11 , PubMed ID: 29928725
  • School of Information and Mathematics, Yangtze University, Jingzhou 434023, China.
  • Mumps, an infectious viral disease, classically manifested by inflammation of salivary glands and is best known as a common childhood viral disease with no specific treatment. Although it can be protected by vaccine, there are more than 100,000 reported mumps cases according to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. However, the factors and mechanisms behind the persistence and prevalence of mumps have not been well understood.A mumps model with seasonal fluctuation is formulated and investigated. We evaluate the basic reproduction number ℛ0 and analyze the dynamical behavior of the model. We also use the model to simulate the monthly data of mumps cases and carry out some sensitivity analysis of ℛ0 in terms of various model parameters.It is shown that there exists only disease-free solution which is globally asymptotically stable if ℛ0 < 1, and there exists a positive periodic solution if ℛ0 > 1. ℛ0 is a threshold parameter, and its magnitude determines the extinction or persistence of the disease.Our analysis shows that vaccination rate and invalid vaccination rate play important roles in the spread of mumps. Hence, Our study suggests to increase the vaccine coverage and make two doses of MMR (Measles, mumps and rubella vaccine) vaccine freely available in China.
Contributors
Submitter of the first revision: Sarubini Kananathan
Submitter of this revision: Sarubini Kananathan
Modellers: Sarubini Kananathan

Metadata information

is (1 statement)
BioModels Database MODEL1808280011

isDescribedBy (1 statement)
PubMed 29928725

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Non-curated
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Model files
Mumps Model with Seasonality in China.xml SBML L2V4 representation of Qu2017 - A mumps model with seasonal fluctuations in China 34.33 KB Preview | Download

Additional files
Mumps Model with Seasonality in China.cps Copasi file for the model. Figure produced is similar to publication. 59.99 KB Preview | Download

  • Model originally submitted by : Sarubini Kananathan
  • Submitted: Aug 28, 2018 4:30:32 PM
  • Last Modified: Aug 28, 2018 4:30:32 PM
Revisions
  • Version: 4 public model Download this version
    • Submitted on: Aug 28, 2018 4:30:32 PM
    • Submitted by: Sarubini Kananathan
    • With comment: Edited model metadata online.