Lee2018 - Avian human bilinear incidence (BI) model

  public model
Model Identifier
Short description
Related Publication
  • Transmission dynamics and control strategies assessment of avian influenza A (H5N6) in the Philippines
  • Hanl Lee, Angelyn Lao
  • Elsevier BV , 3/ 2018 , Volume 3 , pages: 35-59 , DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2018.03.004
  • Mathematics & Statistics Department, De La Salle University , 2401 Taft Avenue, 0922 Manila, Philippines Mathematical & Statistical Modeling Research Unit, Center for Natural Sciences and Environmental Research, 2401 Taft Avenue, 0922Manila, Philippines
  • Due to the outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (HPAI) H5N6 in the Philippines (particularly in Pampanga and Nueva Ecija) in August 2017, there has been an increase in the need to cull the domestic birds to control the spread of the infection. However, this control method poses a negative impact on the poultry industry. In addition, the pathogenicity and transmissibility of the H5N6 in both the birds and the humans remain largely unknown which call for the necessity to develop more strategic control methods for the virus. In this study, we constructed a mathematical model for the bilinear and half-saturated incidence to compare their corresponding effect on transmission dynamics of H5N6. The simulations of half-saturated incidence model were similar to what occurred during the H5N6 outbreak (2017) in the Philippines. Instead of culling the birds, we implemented other control strategies such as non-medicinal (personal protection and poultry isolation) and medicinal (poultry vaccination) ways to prevent, reduce, and control the rate of the H5N6 virus transmission. Among the proposed control strategies, we have shown that the poultry isolation strategy is still the most effective in reducing the infected birds.
Submitter of the first revision: Sarubini Kananathan
Submitter of this revision: Sarubini Kananathan
Modellers: Sarubini Kananathan

Metadata information

is (2 statements)
BioModels Database MODEL1808280009
BioModels Database BIOMD0000000716

hasTaxon (3 statements)
Taxonomy Homo sapiens
Taxonomy Aves
Taxonomy H5N6 subtype

isDescribedBy (1 statement)
hasProperty (3 statements)
Mathematical Modelling Ontology Ordinary differential equation model
Experimental Factor Ontology avian influenza
NCIt Viral Infection

Curation status


Connected external resources

SBGN view in Newt Editor

Name Description Size Actions

Model files

BI reactions.xml SBML L2V4 representation of Lee2018 - Avian human bilinear incidence (BI) model 49.42 KB Preview | Download

Additional files

BI reactions.cps Copasi file for the model 78.55 KB Preview | Download

  • Model originally submitted by : Sarubini Kananathan
  • Submitted: Aug 28, 2018 3:41:11 PM
  • Last Modified: Oct 17, 2018 4:32:26 PM
  • Version: 7 public model Download this version
    • Submitted on: Oct 17, 2018 4:32:26 PM
    • Submitted by: Sarubini Kananathan
    • With comment: Automatically added model identifier BIOMD0000000716
  • Version: 4 public model Download this version
    • Submitted on: Aug 28, 2018 3:41:11 PM
    • Submitted by: Sarubini Kananathan
    • With comment: Edited model metadata online.

(*) You might be seeing discontinuous revisions as only public revisions are displayed here. Any private revisions unpublished model revision of this model will only be shown to the submitter and their collaborators.

: Variable used inside SBML models

Species Initial Concentration/Amount
I a

0000511 ; Homo sapiens
0.0 mmol
I b

0000511 ; Aves
36485.0 mmol
S h

0000514 ; Homo sapiens
171977.0 mmol
S b

0000514 ; Aves
244956.0 mmol
Reactions Rate Parameters
I_a => Human_Population*mu_h*I_a mu_h = 3.95914165808853E-5
S_b => I_b; I_b compartment*beta_b*S_b*I_b beta_b = 0.00346731269415168
I_b => compartment*mu_b*I_b mu_b = 0.00136986301369863
=> S_h Human_Population*LAMBDA_h LAMBDA_h = 11.1667257534247
S_h => Human_Population*mu_h*S_h mu_h = 3.95914165808853E-5
S_h => I_a; I_b beta_bh*S_h*I_b beta_bh = 1.62354134956875E-10
S_b => compartment*mu_b*S_b mu_b = 0.00136986301369863
Curator's comment:
(added: 17 Oct 2018, 16:29:47, updated: 17 Oct 2018, 16:29:47)
1st column of Figure 2 from the reference publication has been reproduced. The model shows the bilinear incidence of avian influence being transmitted. Initial conditions were taken from the publication. The model was simulated using Copasi 4.22 and the figure was generated using Python 2.7.