Chitnis2008 - Mathematical model of malaria transmission

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Model Identifier
Short description
Mathematical model of malaria transmission for low and high transmission rates.
Related Publication
  • Determining important parameters in the spread of malaria through the sensitivity analysis of a mathematical model.
  • Chitnis N, Hyman JM, Cushing JM
  • Bulletin of mathematical biology , 7/ 2008 , Volume 70 , Issue 5 , pages: 1272-1296 , PubMed ID: 18293044
  • Department of Public Health and Epidemiology, Swiss Tropical Institute, Socinstrasse 57, Postfach, 4002, Basel, Switzerland.
  • We perform sensitivity analyses on a mathematical model of malaria transmission to determine the relative importance of model parameters to disease transmission and prevalence. We compile two sets of baseline parameter values: one for areas of high transmission and one for low transmission. We compute sensitivity indices of the reproductive number (which measures initial disease transmission) and the endemic equilibrium point (which measures disease prevalence) to the parameters at the baseline values. We find that in areas of low transmission, the reproductive number and the equilibrium proportion of infectious humans are most sensitive to the mosquito biting rate. In areas of high transmission, the reproductive number is again most sensitive to the mosquito biting rate, but the equilibrium proportion of infectious humans is most sensitive to the human recovery rate. This suggests strategies that target the mosquito biting rate (such as the use of insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor residual spraying) and those that target the human recovery rate (such as the prompt diagnosis and treatment of infectious individuals) can be successful in controlling malaria.
Submitter of the first revision: Matthew Roberts
Submitter of this revision: Krishna Kumar Tiwari
Modellers: Matthew Roberts, Krishna Kumar Tiwari

Metadata information

is (2 statements)
BioModels Database BIOMD0000000949
BioModels Database MODEL1805220002

isDescribedBy (1 statement)
PubMed 18293044

hasTaxon (1 statement)
Taxonomy Homo sapiens

hasProperty (3 statements)
Mathematical Modelling Ontology Ordinary differential equation model
NCIt Transmission
NCIt Malaria

hasPart (1 statement)
Experimental Factor Ontology malaria

isVersionOf (1 statement)

Curation status


Connected external resources

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Model files

Chitnis2008.xml SBML L2V4 representation of Chitnis2008 - Mathematical model of malaria transmission 85.32 KB Preview | Download

Additional files

Chitnis2008.cps COPASI 2.47(217) file for the model 124.05 KB Preview | Download
Chitnis2008.sedml SEDML file for the model 10.07 KB Preview | Download
fig.jpg Simulation results reproducing figures 2 and 3. 36.95 KB Preview | Download

  • Model originally submitted by : Matthew Roberts
  • Submitted: May 22, 2018 3:48:18 PM
  • Last Modified: May 13, 2020 5:42:31 PM
  • Version: 4 public model Download this version
    • Submitted on: May 13, 2020 5:42:31 PM
    • Submitted by: Krishna Kumar Tiwari
    • With comment: Automatically added model identifier BIOMD0000000949
  • Version: 2 public model Download this version
    • Submitted on: May 22, 2018 3:48:18 PM
    • Submitted by: Matthew Roberts
    • With comment: Edited model metadata online.

(*) You might be seeing discontinuous revisions as only public revisions are displayed here. Any private revisions unpublished model revision of this model will only be shown to the submitter and their collaborators.

: Variable used inside SBML models

Species Initial Concentration/Amount
Infected Human

Infection ; Homo sapiens
3.0 mmol
Susceptible Human

600.0 mmol

0.0 mmol
Susceptible Mosquito

2400.0 mmol
Exposed Human

C156623 ; Homo sapiens
20.0 mmol
Infected Mosquito

Infection ; C123547
5.0 mmol
Reactions Rate Parameters
Infected_Human => Human*f_h*Infected_Human f_h = 1.334E-4
Recovered => Susceptible_Human Human*rho_h*Recovered rho_h = 0.0027
Infected_Human => Recovered Human*gamma_h*Infected_Human gamma_h = 0.0035
Susceptible_Mosquito => Mosquito*f_v*Susceptible_Mosquito f_v = 0.1304
=> Susceptible_Human Human*Psi_h*N_h N_h = 623.0; Psi_h = 5.5E-5
Susceptible_Human => Exposed_Human Human*lambda_h*Susceptible_Human lambda_h = 4.48218926330601E-5
=> Susceptible_Mosquito Mosquito*Psi_v*N_v Psi_v = 0.13; N_v = 2435.0
Exposed_Human => Infected_Human Human*v_h*Exposed_Human v_h = 0.1
Exposed_Mosquito => Infected_Mosquito Mosquito*v_v*Exposed_Mosquito v_v = 0.083
Curator's comment:
(added: 13 May 2020, 17:42:18, updated: 13 May 2020, 17:42:18)
Figure 2 of the literature result reproduced. Model encoded and plot generated using COPASI 4.27(217).