Mukhta2018-the effect of bednet coverage on malaria transmission in South Sudan

  public model
Model Identifier
MODEL2003160003
Short description
A campaign for malaria control, using Long Lasting Insecticide Nets (LLINs) was launched in South Sudan in 2009. The success of such a campaign often depends upon adequate available resources and reliable surveillance data which help officials understand existing infections. An optimal allocation of resources for malaria control at a sub-national scale is therefore paramount to the success of efforts to reduce malaria prevalence. In this paper, we extend an existing SIR mathematical model to capture the effect of LLINs on malaria transmission. Available data on malaria is utilized to determine realistic parameter values of this model using a Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Then, we explore the parasite prevalence on a continued rollout of LLINs in three different settings in order to create a sub-national projection of malaria. Further, we calculate the model's basic reproductive number and study its sensitivity to LLINs' coverage and its efficacy. From the numerical simulation results, we notice a basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text], confirming a substantial increase of incidence cases if no form of intervention takes place in the community. This work indicates that an effective use of LLINs may reduce [Formula: see text] and hence malaria transmission. We hope that this study will provide a basis for recommending a scaling-up of the entry point of LLINs' distribution that targets households in areas at risk of malaria.

Model is encoded by Ruby and submitted to BioModels by Ahmad Zyoud
Format
SBML (L2V4)
Related Publication
  • Modelling the effect of bednet coverage on malaria transmission in South Sudan.
  • Mukhtar AYA, Clark AE, Clark AE, Clark AE
  • PloS one , 1/ 2018 , Volume 13 , Issue 6 , pages: e0198280 , PubMed ID: 29879166
  • Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of the Western Cape, Private Bag X17, Bellville 7535, South Africa.
  • A campaign for malaria control, using Long Lasting Insecticide Nets (LLINs) was launched in South Sudan in 2009. The success of such a campaign often depends upon adequate available resources and reliable surveillance data which help officials understand existing infections. An optimal allocation of resources for malaria control at a sub-national scale is therefore paramount to the success of efforts to reduce malaria prevalence. In this paper, we extend an existing SIR mathematical model to capture the effect of LLINs on malaria transmission. Available data on malaria is utilized to determine realistic parameter values of this model using a Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Then, we explore the parasite prevalence on a continued rollout of LLINs in three different settings in order to create a sub-national projection of malaria. Further, we calculate the model's basic reproductive number and study its sensitivity to LLINs' coverage and its efficacy. From the numerical simulation results, we notice a basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text], confirming a substantial increase of incidence cases if no form of intervention takes place in the community. This work indicates that an effective use of LLINs may reduce [Formula: see text] and hence malaria transmission. We hope that this study will provide a basis for recommending a scaling-up of the entry point of LLINs' distribution that targets households in areas at risk of malaria.
Contributors
Ahmad Zyoud

Metadata information

hasTaxon
Taxonomy Homo sapiens
isDerivedFrom
Mathematical Modelling Ontology Ordinary differential equation model
Taxonomy Homo sapiens
C34797
18166074
C15716
hasProperty
Mathematical Modelling Ontology Ordinary differential equation model
C34797
C15716
isDescribedBy

Curation status
Non-curated


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Model files

Mukhta2018.xml SBML L2V4 Mukhta2018-the effect of bednet coverage on malaria transmission in South Sudan_Original 77.88 KB Preview | Download

Additional files

Mukhta2018.cps COPASI version 4.27 (Build 217) Mukhta2018-the effect of bednet coverage on malaria transmission in South Sudan_Original 113.45 KB Preview | Download

  • Model originally submitted by : Ahmad Zyoud
  • Submitted: 16-Mar-2020 18:16:55
  • Last Modified: 16-Mar-2020 18:16:55
Revisions
  • Version: 1 public model Download this version
    • Submitted on: 16-Mar-2020 18:16:55
    • Submitted by: Ahmad Zyoud
    • With comment: Import of Mukhta2018-the effect of bednet coverage on malaria transmission in South Sudan
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