Leung2016 - SIRWS model with immune boosting and cross-immunity between two pathogens

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SBML (L2V4)
Related Publication
  • Periodic solutions in an SIRWS model with immune boosting and cross-immunity.
  • Leung T, Hughes BD, Frascoli F, McCaw JM
  • Journal of theoretical biology , 12/ 2016 , Volume 410 , pages: 55-64
  • School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia.
  • Incidence of whooping cough, an infection caused by Bordetella pertussis and Bordetella parapertussis, has been on the rise since the 1980s in many countries. Immunological interactions, such as immune boosting and cross-immunity between pathogens, have been hypothesised to be important drivers of epidemiological dynamics. We present a two-pathogen model of transmission which examines how immune boosting and cross-immunity can influence the timing and severity of epidemics. We use a combination of numerical simulations and bifurcation techniques to study the dynamical properties of the system, particularly the conditions under which stable periodic solutions are present. We derive analytic expressions for the steady state of the single-pathogen model, and give a condition for the presence of periodic solutions. A key result from our two-pathogen model is that, while studies have shown that immune boosting at relatively strong levels can independently generate periodic solutions, cross-immunity allows for the presence of periodic solutions even when the level of immune boosting is weak. Asymmetric cross-immunity can produce striking increases in the incidence and period. Our study underscores the importance of developing a better understanding of the immunological interactions between pathogens in order to improve model-based interpretations of epidemiological data.
Contributors
Sarubini Kananathan

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Non-curated
  • Model originally submitted by : Sarubini Kananathan
  • Submitted: 28-Aug-2018 13:11:14
  • Last Modified: 28-Aug-2018 13:11:14
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  • Version: 4 public model Download this version
    • Submitted on: 28-Aug-2018 13:11:14
    • Submitted by: Sarubini Kananathan
    • With comment: Edited model metadata online.