Wan2020 - risk estimation and prediction of the transmission of COVID-19 in maninland China excluding Hubei province

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Model Identifier
BIOMD0000000981
Short description
Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of coronavirus disease (later named as COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China and, later on, detected in other parts of China. Our aim is to evaluate the effectiveness of the evolution of interventions and self-protection measures, estimate the risk of partial lifting control measures and predict the epidemic trend of the virus in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province based on the published data and a novel mathematical model. Methods: A novel COVID-19 transmission dynamic model incorporating the intervention measures implemented in China is proposed. COVID-19 daily data of the mainland of China excluding Hubei province, including the cumulative confirmed cases, the cumulative deaths, newly confirmed cases and the cumulative recovered cases between 20 January and 3 March 2020, were archived from the National Health Commission of China (NHCC). We parameterize the model by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and estimate the control reproduction number (Rc), as well as the effective daily reproduction ratio- Re(t), of the disease transmission in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province. Results: The estimation outcomes indicate that Rc is 3.36 (95% CI: 3.20-3.64) and Re(t) has dropped below 1 since 31 January 2020, which implies that the containment strategies implemented by the Chinese government in the mainland of China are indeed effective and magnificently suppressed COVID-19 transmission. Moreover, our results show that relieving personal protection too early may lead to a prolonged disease transmission period and more people would be infected, and may even cause a second wave of epidemic or outbreaks. By calculating the effective reproduction ratio, we prove that the contact rate should be kept at least less than 30% of the normal level by April, 2020. Conclusions: To ensure the pandemic ending rapidly, it is necessary to maintain the current integrated restrict interventions and self-protection measures, including travel restriction, quarantine of entry, contact tracing followed by quarantine and isolation and reduction of contact, like wearing masks, keeping social distance, etc. People should be fully aware of the real-time epidemic situation and keep sufficient personal protection until April. If all the above conditions are met, the outbreak is expected to be ended by April in the mainland of China apart from Hubei province.
Format
SBML (L3V1)
Related Publication
  • Risk estimation and prediction of the transmission of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province.
  • Wan H, Cui JA, Yang GJ
  • Infectious diseases of poverty , 8/ 2020 , Volume 9 , Issue 1 , pages: 116 , PubMed ID: 32831142
  • Jiangsu Key Lab for NSLSCS, School of Mathematical Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China.
  • BACKGROUND:In December 2019, an outbreak of coronavirus disease (later named as COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China and, later on, detected in other parts of China. Our aim is to evaluate the effectiveness of the evolution of interventions and self-protection measures, estimate the risk of partial lifting control measures and predict the epidemic trend of the virus in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province based on the published data and a novel mathematical model. METHODS:A novel COVID-19 transmission dynamic model incorporating the intervention measures implemented in China is proposed. COVID-19 daily data of the mainland of China excluding Hubei province, including the cumulative confirmed cases, the cumulative deaths, newly confirmed cases and the cumulative recovered cases between 20 January and 3 March 2020, were archived from the National Health Commission of China (NHCC). We parameterize the model by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and estimate the control reproduction number (Rc), as well as the effective daily reproduction ratio- Re(t), of the disease transmission in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province. RESULTS:The estimation outcomes indicate that Rc is 3.36 (95% CI: 3.20-3.64) and Re(t) has dropped below 1 since 31 January 2020, which implies that the containment strategies implemented by the Chinese government in the mainland of China are indeed effective and magnificently suppressed COVID-19 transmission. Moreover, our results show that relieving personal protection too early may lead to a prolonged disease transmission period and more people would be infected, and may even cause a second wave of epidemic or outbreaks. By calculating the effective reproduction ratio, we prove that the contact rate should be kept at least less than 30% of the normal level by April, 2020. CONCLUSIONS:To ensure the pandemic ending rapidly, it is necessary to maintain the current integrated restrict interventions and self-protection measures, including travel restriction, quarantine of entry, contact tracing followed by quarantine and isolation and reduction of contact, like wearing masks, keeping social distance, etc. People should be fully aware of the real-time epidemic situation and keep sufficient personal protection until April. If all the above conditions are met, the outbreak is expected to be ended by April in the mainland of China apart from Hubei province.
Contributors
Kausthubh Ramachandran

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Wan2020.xml SBML L3V1 file of model of risk estimation and prediction of the transmission of COVID-19 in maninland China excluding Hubei province 80.71 KB Preview | Download

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Wan2020.cps COPASI 4.29 (Build 228) file of risk estimation and prediction of the transmission of COVID-19 in maninland China excluding Hubei province 124.27 KB Preview | Download
Wan2020.sedml SED-ML file of risk estimation and prediction of the transmission of COVID-19 in maninland China excluding Hubei province 4.00 KB Preview | Download
Wan2020.omex COMBINE archive of risk estimation and prediction of the transmission of COVID-19 in maninland China excluding Hubei province 16.82 KB Preview | Download

  • Model originally submitted by : Kausthubh Ramachandran
  • Submitted: Dec 9, 2020 1:12:27 PM
  • Last Modified: Dec 9, 2020 1:12:27 PM
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  • Version: 3 public model Download this version
    • Submitted on: Dec 9, 2020 1:12:27 PM
    • Submitted by: Kausthubh Ramachandran
    • With comment: Automatically added model identifier BIOMD0000000981
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Curator's comment:
(added: 09 Dec 2020, 13:11:13, updated: 09 Dec 2020, 13:11:47)
Figs 4(a), 4(b), 4(c), and 4(e) are reproduced here. No changes to published parameters and initial conditions were done. All times are in days counted from Jan 20, 2020